Chat GPT-4 thinks US and EU should cooperate with China and rise together

• this is part of a continuing series of speculative data aesthetics. For more info, please see my research at rita.care #fictistics

I asked Chat GPT-4 to analyse the relative benefits of cooperation vs. confrontation with China.

Specifically for the US, Chat GPT-4 found the following benefits. (all responses from Chat GPT-4 are quoted here in italics)

Economic Growth and Trade

1. Increased Exports:

• Market Access: US companies would gain better access to the vast Chinese market, leading to increased exports. This can boost revenues for American businesses, especially in sectors like agriculture, automotive, and technology.
• Example: The US agricultural sector could see a surge in exports of soybeans, corn, and meat products, benefiting American farmers and rural economies.

2. Supply Chain Efficiency:

• Cost Reduction: Cooperation can lead to more integrated and efficient supply chains, reducing production costs and enhancing competitiveness for US manufacturers.
• Example: The electronics and consumer goods sectors could benefit from reduced costs and improved supply chain reliability, leading to lower prices for consumers.

Investment and Innovation

1. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

• Increased Investment: Chinese companies investing in the US can bring capital, create jobs, and stimulate local economies. This can be particularly beneficial in manufacturing and infrastructure development.
• Example: Chinese investments in American infrastructure projects can lead to job creation and improved public facilities.

2. Collaborative Innovation

• Joint Research and Development: Cooperation in technology and innovation can lead to joint R&D projects, accelerating advancements in fields like AI, renewable energy, and biotechnology.
• Example: Joint ventures in renewable energy technology can lead to innovations that help the US transition to a more sustainable energy system, reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

Job Creation and Wages

1. Job Creation:

• Manufacturing and Services: Increased exports and investment can create jobs in manufacturing, services, and high-tech industries. This can reduce unemployment and provide new opportunities for American workers.
• Example: The automotive industry can benefit from increased exports and partnerships, leading to job growth in both production and research sectors.

2. Wage Growth:

• Higher Wages: Enhanced economic growth and productivity can lead to higher wages for American workers. This is particularly true in high-value sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing.
• Example: The tech industry could see wage growth as a result of increased demand for skilled workers and successful collaborations in innovation.

Consumer Benefits

1. Lower Prices:

• Cost Savings: Efficient supply chains and increased competition can lead to lower prices for consumers, improving the overall standard of living.
• Example: Cheaper consumer electronics and household goods due to reduced production costs and tariffs.

2. Increased Variety:

• Product Diversity: Enhanced trade can lead to a greater variety of goods and services available to consumers, providing more choices and improving quality of life.
• Example: A wider range of affordable and high-quality products in the market, from clothing to electronics.

Geopolitical and Social Stability

1. Geopolitical Stability:

• Reduced Tensions: A cooperative relationship with China can reduce geopolitical tensions, leading to a more stable international environment. This stability is conducive to long-term economic planning and investment.
• Example: Stable US-China relations can lead to more predictable trade policies and reduced risk of sudden economic disruptions.

2. Social Cohesion:

• Economic Security: Improved economic conditions and job growth can enhance social cohesion and reduce economic disparities, contributing to a more stable and prosperous society.
• Example: Increased employment opportunities and higher wages can reduce social unrest and economic inequality.

The benefits can be resumed as follows

1. GDP Growth: A significant boost to economic growth due to increased trade, investment, and efficiency.
2. Job Creation: Higher job creation across various sectors, particularly in manufacturing, technology, and services.
3. Wage Growth: Enhanced economic conditions leading to higher wages for American workers.
4. Consumer Benefits: Lower prices and greater product variety improving the standard of living.
5. Geopolitical Stability: Reduced geopolitical tensions contributing to a more stable and predictable economic environment.

“bar chart illustrating the potential benefits of US-China cooperation for the US economy and its people:”

For balance, I also asked it to come up with speculative benefits of continuing confrontation.

Potential Benefits of Confrontation:

1. Protection of Domestic Industries

• Job Protection: Protecting domestic industries from foreign competition can save local jobs in vulnerable sectors.
• Example: US steel and aluminum industries may benefit from tariffs that limit cheaper imports.

2. National Security:

• Strategic Independence: Reducing dependence on foreign entities for critical goods can enhance national security.
• Example: Ensuring that key technology and defense-related industries remain under domestic control.

3. Technological Leadership:

• Innovation Incentives: Protecting intellectual property and reducing foreign competition can incentivize domestic innovation.
• Example: Encouraging the growth of homegrown tech companies by limiting foreign tech investments and competition.

4. Economic Diversification:

• Diversification of Supply Chains: Reducing reliance on any single country can diversify supply chains and reduce risk.
• Example: Encouraging businesses to seek alternative suppliers and markets can lead to a more resilient economy.

5. Political and Economic Sovereignty:

• Policy Independence: Confrontation allows countries to pursue independent economic and political policies without external pressure.
• Example: Implementing policies that prioritize national interests over global integration.

I then asked Chat GPT-4 to weight the relative benefits of cooperation vs. confrontation, and it came up with the following conclusions:

Analysis:

• Economic Growth and Job Creation: Cooperation significantly outperforms confrontation, indicating greater potential for economic prosperity and employment opportunities.
• Technological Advancement: Cooperation leads to more substantial advancements due to collaborative efforts and shared innovation.
• National Security: Confrontation provides higher benefits in terms of strategic independence and protection of critical industries.
• Social Stability: Cooperation fosters a more stable and cohesive society through economic growth and job creation.

Conclusion:

Overall, cooperation appears to be more beneficial for the US and EU across most dimensions, particularly in terms of economic growth, job creation, and technological advancement. Confrontation, while offering some advantages in national security and protection of specific industries, may not provide the same level of comprehensive benefits and could lead to long-term economic challenges.

My long-time colleague Dmytri Kleiner is fond of saying “capitalism is too stupid for AI.” Even “AI” understands that cooperation with China is far more beneficial by almost every important indicator. Can we learn from what AI is telling us?